What Investors and Educators Should Watch for in the Next Wave of Education Groups and Structures
The private education sector is once again at a crossroads. We have seen periods of very rapid expansion, fuelled by a huge appetite from investors seeking stable and resilient assets. At the same time, shifting demographics, evolving parental expectations, and policy headwinds are forcing both operators and investors to rethink their strategies.
What was once considered the inevitable path? Growth through ever-larger school groups may no longer be the only or even the most effective model. The next wave of education group structures will look different, and for investors, the key question is how to identify which models are best positioned to thrive.
As someone who has been directly involved in setting up, managing, and advising schools around the world, my view is clear: the era of mega education groups dominating the global stage is beginning to give way to something different. The future belongs to smaller, more agile, regionally focused school groups and those who understand this shift will be best positioned to succeed.
Why the Mega Education Groups Model Is Under Pressure
For the last two decades, the private education sector has been defined by a handful of global giants: Nord Anglia, Cognita, GEMS, Maple Bear, Inspired Education, and SABIS, among others. Their size and reach have allowed them to create efficiencies, attract international capital, and benefit from strong brand recognition.
Yet size comes with challenges:
- Policy Exposure: Large groups are vulnerable to sweeping changes in taxation, labour law, or regulatory environments. In the UK, for example, new tax rules on private school fees have created headwinds for big operators with a heavy domestic footprint.
- Cultural Dilution: Maintaining a coherent school culture across dozens of campuses in different countries is extremely difficult. Parents increasingly seek authenticity and community alignment, not generic “one-size-fits-all” education.
- Operational Rigidity: Large groups can sometimes move slowly. They struggle to adapt quickly to shifts in demand, new curriculum models, or innovative teaching approaches.
These pressures do not mean the mega-groups will disappear. They do many great things! They will continue to serve a role. But the market is clearly signalling that investors should also be looking elsewhere.
The Rise of Mid-Sized and Regional Education Groups
The next wave of opportunity lies in school education groups of 6–10 campuses, built around a strong regional presence and specific market positioning.
Why is this size range significant?
- Big Enough for Efficiency: With six or more schools, operators can centralise administration, professional development, and procurement, achieving meaningful economies of scale.
- Small Enough for Authenticity: Leaders can still know their schools intimately, retain cultural coherence, and remain connected to the communities they serve.
- Agile and Adaptive: Mid-sized groups can pivot when demand changes, whether that means adapting to new accreditation frameworks, introducing innovative curricula, or adjusting pricing models.
This is a scale that combines the best of both worlds. It protects against the fragility of “single campus” operators while avoiding the structural bloat of global mega-groups.
Niche Positioning: The New Differentiator
Education is not a commodity. Parents choose schools based on deeply personal values and priorities. Increasingly, we see that schools that specialise, rather than generalise, are capturing attention and loyalty.
Emerging areas of niche focus include:
- STEM and STEAM Pathways: Schools aligning with future industries, entrepreneurship, and innovation.
- Sports and Performing Arts Academies: Combining elite training with strong academic pathways.
- Character and Wellbeing Education: Families are increasingly looking for schools that embed wellbeing, values, and resilience at the heart of the curriculum.
- Cultural Identity and Language: Dual-language schools, or schools that align closely with local culture while delivering international standards, are thriving.
- Hybrid and Flexible Models: Schools that successfully blend online, independent, and in-person learning are meeting the demands of modern families.
For investors, these niches are more than “branding exercises.” They drive differentiation in crowded markets, underpin pricing power, and most importantly, deliver real outcomes for students that parents value.
Regional Anchoring: Stability Through Relevance
One of the strongest lessons I have learned from working in diverse markets, from the Middle East to Asia and Africa, is that context matters. Successful schools are those that balance international standards with regional relevance.
Regional anchoring means:
- Understanding Local Demand: Is the greatest need for premium, mid-tier, or affordable schooling? In some markets, mid-tier schools are more resilient than ultra-premium.
- Policy and Accreditation Alignment: Schools that anticipate and align with government priorities are better positioned to withstand regulatory change.
- Community Connection: Schools that engage deeply with parents, local organisations, and cultural norms are seen not just as businesses but as part of the social fabric.
This approach not only drives enrolment stability, it also mitigates risk. Education groups that ignore local context may achieve short-term growth but eventually face resistance from regulators, parents, or even staff.
How Large Education Groups Can Stay Relevant: Brands Within Brands
It is important to note that scale itself is not inherently flawed. Large groups can succeed if they embrace compartmentalisation. Instead of trying to impose a single identity across dozens of schools, mega education groups can adopt a “brands within brands” model.
This means creating specialist clusters or sub-groups within the larger organisation, each with its own clear identity, market focus, and leadership. For example:
- A cluster of premium British curriculum schools under one brand identity.
- A set of mid-tier bilingual schools aligned to local culture.
- Specialist academies in sports, arts, or STEM operate semi-independently.
For this to work, leadership must be devolved and empowered. Each compartment needs autonomy to shape its own culture, staffing, and educational model, while still benefiting from the financial and operational backbone of the larger organisation.
When executed well, this allows large groups to enjoy the benefits of scale, access to capital, professionalised governance, purchasing power, while also staying close to niche market needs.
Investors should therefore not dismiss large operators entirely. Instead, they should assess how effectively those operators empower specialist compartments, and whether there is true depth of leadership across the group.
What Investors Should Watch Closely
As capital flows into the next generation of school groups, investors need to look beyond simple financials. The best opportunities will have strong educational fundamentals at their core.
Here are the key markers to assess:
- Educational Quality as a Driver of Value
- Academic outcomes, well-being measures, and university placements are not just “soft” indicators. They directly influence reputation, retention, and long-term enrolments. Investors should scrutinise how education quality is measured and reported.
- Leadership with Depth
- Strong governance and leadership teams with proven experience in education (not only finance) are essential. Education outcomes must be prioritised alongside EBITDA.
- Financial Sustainability
- Successful groups will not depend solely on premium tuition. Sustainable models balance affordability, market fit, and responsible margins.
- Scalable but Coherent Models
- Growth should not dilute identity. Investors should look for groups with clear “vision and mission integrity“. What I often describe as “signature experiences” that distinguish them from competitors.
- Parent and Community Loyalty
- Retention rates, word-of-mouth referrals, and engagement metrics are leading indicators of long-term viability. Schools that win parents’ trust become more resilient to competitive or policy shocks.
Aligning Capital With Educational Integrity
One of the most important shifts we are seeing is that capital flows into education are becoming more sophisticated. Investors are no longer satisfied with surface-level due diligence; they want to understand how schools balance financial sustainability with genuine educational outcomes.
This is exactly why new investment structures are emerging, such as regulated funds dedicated to the education sector. These vehicles not only ensure professional governance and transparency, but they also create pathways for capital to flow into projects that prioritise both returns and long-term educational impact.
At Global Services in Education, we have recently extended our advisory work into the investment space by supporting the launch of a regulated fund in Malta. This step allows us to connect carefully vetted school projects with serious investors who share the view that education investment must never compromise learning outcomes.
A Balanced Perspective for Investors
Ultimately, investors need to remember that education is not just another asset class. It is a deeply human sector where outcomes are measured not only in returns but also in the lives shaped. The most successful investments will be those that align financial discipline with educational integrity.
We are entering a new era in international schooling. The winners will not necessarily be the biggest players, but those who can combine scale with soul, efficiency with authenticity, and profitability with purpose.
Investors who understand this balance will not only achieve sustainable returns but also help shape the future of education.
Meet Our CEO & Education Expert
Greg Parry – International School Leadership Authority
Greg Parry is a renowned global expert in education leadership, having led projects in Australia, the Middle East, the United States, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and China. His accolades include:
🏆 Minister’s Award for Excellence in School Leadership
🏆 School of Excellence Award for Industry/School Partnerships
🏆 School of Excellence Award for Technology Innovation
🏆 Recognised for Best Global Brand in International Education (2015 & 2016)
With a strong track record in school start-up projects, leadership training, and curriculum development, Greg is a trusted authority in building and managing high-performing international schools.
📩 Contact Greg Parry Directly [Contact Link]
GSE’s Comprehensive School and University Development Services
GSE offers end-to-end solutions tailored for new and existing schools, covering:
✔ School Management & Operations
✔ Strategic Planning & Feasibility Studies, including Financial modelling
✔ Architectural & Interior Conceptual Design
✔ School Resources & ICT Planning
✔ Marketing, Branding & Admissions
✔ Staffing, Recruitment & Training
✔ Curriculum Design & Accreditation Support
✔ School Audits & Action Plans
Let’s Build a World-Class School Together!
💡 Ready to start or improve your school?
Visit www.gsineducation.com to explore how we can help you achieve excellence in international education.
Recent Comments